The Estimated Dividends widget repeats each holding's last year of dividends forward and groups them by month. Two things about that were wrong, and both made the months look different from what your account would show.
Payment month, not ex-dividend month
The data feed records ex-dividend dates, and only gives a payment date for a dividend that has been declared, and never for London listings. Grouping by ex-date pulled payments a month or two too early: GSK's went ex on 14 August 2025 and was paid on 9 October. The widget now uses a declared payment date when there is one, and otherwise adds a typical gap: about 30 days for a London listing and about 15 for a US one, both measured from real payments.
One-offs aren't repeated
Repeating last year meant a special dividend paid last March was forecast again next March. A payment is now treated as a special when it is far larger than that holding's recent payments, and isn't projected forward. The thresholds were set against real special dividends in held stocks so that a genuine raise isn't mistaken for one.
Still estimates
For markets without a measured gap the widget stays on the ex-date, and no forecast knows about a dividend the company hasn't announced. The figures are what last year's pattern implies, not a promise.
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